My native state of Ohio is a perfect microcosm of the United States, perhaps more so than any other. It has major cities, but no titans; suburbia bleeding into exurbia; farming and industrial jobs (although less of both every year); rolling hills in the southeast, a Great Lake in the northeast, and Midwestern flatness everywhere else. There's a reason that the TV show Family Ties was set in Columbus, Ohio (my hometown). It represents that mystical concept, "America."
Whoever wins the Buckeye State is virtually guaranteed to be the next President. Last night I watched a new documentary entitled "So Goes the Nation", which contrasts the Republican and Democratic "get out the vote" efforts in 2004. Helen and I went to Columbus to campaign for John Kerry the weekend before the election, and several scenes featured his headquarters on the South Side. It brought back bittersweet memories of how close we came, and offers useful lessons about how Democrats can win the next election.
"So Goes the Nation" is not a liberal screed about the theft of Ohio in 2004. There are scenes of very long waits in polling places in African-American sections of cities; this did happen, but whether it was concerted disenfranchisement is still up for debate.
Several people from the Bush campaign speak about their strategy in 2004, and they come off much better than their counterparts in the Kerry camp. Mark McKinnon was the Bush media strategist, and he is very candid about the way they painted Kerry as an arrogant, elitist flip-flopper. In the Kerry corner, Tad Devine and Mary Beth Cahill still can't acknowledge their role in forming a flawed campaign strategy. Most egregious was not responding immediately and strongly to the slanders of Kerry's Vietnam war record by the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.
McKinnon argues that Howard Dean would have been a tougher opponent than John Kerry. Why? Because Dean knows what he thinks and sticks with it, no matter what happens. President Bush has the same attribute, and this is the secret of his success. Kerry's ponderousness is attractive to me, although it is a political liability; he knows that the world is complex, and refuses to speak in sound bites. The bottom line is that most people value directness and passion, which is the main thing that President Bush has to offer.
At the grass roots level, the Bush get out the vote volunteers are much more disciplined and on message than their Democratic counterparts (including, as I look back on it, myself). This is because they actually live in the neighborhoods where they are canvassing, and aren't uppity New Yorkers doing the good deed of delivering the truth to the heartland. Democrats could learn a great deal from the grass roots strategy of the Republicans.
There are some great progressives in the film; don't get me wrong. I like Miles Gerety, a middle aged public defender from Connecticut who travels to Columbus because "this is the most important election since 1968." And the best person of all is Evan Wilkinson, a young activist from New York who grew up somewhere else. He cautions that most progressive rhetoric comes across as "hating most Americans." I love living in New York, but there is no doubt that Wilkinson is correct. Hopefully his wisdom will prevail in 2008, and Democrats will find a way to connect with most Americans. Although the great Republican implosion of 2006 bodes well for '08, we still have lessons to learn from the last time around.
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